Analysis ASML Q1 2025 Financial Results

In the first quarter of 2025, ASML reported revenue of €7.7 billion, of which €2 billion was generated from services and field options. The company achieved a gross profit of €4.2 billion, representing a gross margin of 54%, and a net profit of €2.4 billion, reflecting a 30% net margin. For the trailing twelve months, ASML recorded total revenue of €30.7 billion, including €7.2 billion from services, with a gross profit of €16 billion (52% margin) and a net profit of €8.7 billion (28% margin).

“Our conversations so far with customers support our expectation that 2025 and 2026 will be growth years.” — Christophe Fouquet (CEO ASML)

During Q1 2025, ASML secured €3.9 billion in net bookings. On a twelve-month basis, net bookings inflow totaled €19.2 billion. As of March 31, 2025, the company’s order backlog stood at approximately €34 billion, a decline of €1.8 billion compared to the previous quarter.

Over the past five years, ASML has demonstrated robust growth, with its order backlog rising from €12 billion at the end of 2019 to €34 billion as of the end of Q1 2025.

Looking ahead
ASML has reaffirmed its full-year 2025 revenue guidance of €30–35 billion. The company remains optimistic, citing strong tailwinds such as the increasing adoption of artificial intelligence (AI), while acknowledging short-term macroeconomic uncertainties, including the impact of new tariffs.

“[...] the recent tariff announcements have increased uncertainty in the macro environment and the situation will remain dynamic for a while. As previously shared, artificial intelligence continues to be the primary growth driver in our industry.”  — Christophe Fouquet.

ASML is strategically positioned to support long-term growth in the semiconductor sector. The pace of this expansion will depend on the investment appetite of its customers and their respective buyers. Structural trends, particularly in cloud computing, AI, and emerging technologies, are expected to underpin sustained demand over the coming decade.

As of March 31, 2025, ASML reported cash and cash equivalents of €9 billion, down from €12.7 billion at the end of 2024. During Q1 2025, the company repurchased €2.7 billion worth of its shares—approximately 4 million shares—at an average price of €687 per share. Given an FY2024 average diluted share count of 393.6 million, the Q1 buyback equates to roughly 1% of outstanding shares. With cash reserves exceeding ASML's minimum liquidity threshold of €5–6 billion (my own estimates) by €3–4 billion, ASML is well-positioned to continue executing its share buyback program, potentially enhancing shareholder value amid favorable market conditions.

I have made no changes to the company’s valuation following its Q1 results. My price target remains at ~€1,475 for FY2030, in line with ASML’s previously outlined moderate scenario. This target implies a potential upside of €900 per share, corresponding to a compound annual growth rate of 17.8% through 2031, excluding dividends.

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As of April 16, 2025, the author held a LONG position in $ASML